2024年02月13日
拒絶理由に反論して特許になる率を考えてみた【リライト版】
✔拒絶理由に反論しそれが認められて特許になる率は？
と尋ねられました。
どこかにデータはあるのかも知れません。
とっさに以下のような数字でお答えしました。
あくまで机上の数字ですが、ご参考まで。
→１～２割と言われています。そこで15％とします。
→１～２割と言われています。そこで15％とします。
①～⑤を前提条件とします。
拒絶理由に反論してそれが認められて特許になる率を求めてみます。
＝拒絶理由が通知されずに特許になる率（①の15％）
＋拒絶理由が通知されて特許になる率（（④の85％×85％）×P）
となります。
あくまで机上の数字です。
あなたの具体的な案件に必ずしも当てはまるとは言えません。
あくまでご参考まで。
（例えば、歴史の比較的浅い特許事務所です。）
当然に、拒絶理由に反論して特許になる率も100％と言えます。
こうした数値は、どこかでデータ化されているのかも知れません。
それはさておき、今後もいろいろ考えてみたいと思います。
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＜機械翻訳＞
I considered the rate of obtaining a patent by refuting the reasons for refusal [Rewritten version]
From a customer,
✔What is the rate of refuting the reasons for refusal and being granted a patent?
I was asked.
Maybe there is data somewhere.
I answered with the following numbers.
These are just theoretical numbers, but for reference only.
●Prerequisites for considering the rate of obtaining a patent by rebutting the reasons for refusal
(1) Rate of obtaining a patent without being notified of reasons for refusal
Rate of suddenly being granted a patent (single patent) without being notified of the reasons for refusal
→It is said to be between 10% and 20%. So let's set it to 15%.
① Rate of obtaining a patent without notification of reasons for refusal: 15%
②Rate of notification of reasons for refusal: 85%
(2) Rate of not making an argument after being notified of reasons for refusal
Rate of non-refutation after being notified of reasons for refusal
→It is said to be between 10% and 20%. So let's set it to 15%.
③Rate of not filing an argument after being notified of reasons for refusal: 15%
④Rate of filing objections after being notified of reasons for refusal: 85%
(3) Rate of eventual patenting
The final patent rate is said to be around 60%.
⑤Final patent rate: 60%
① to ⑤ are prerequisites.
Let's find the rate at which a patent is granted after rebutting the reasons for refusal.
To summarize the above,
① Rate of obtaining a patent without notification of reasons for refusal: 15%
②Rate of notification of reasons for refusal: 85%
Of the 85% of ②,
③Rate of not arguing after being notified of reasons for refusal: 15% (85% of ② x 15%)
④Rate of filing objections after being notified of reasons for refusal: 85% (85% of ② x 85%)
⑤Final patent rate: 60%
●What is the rate of obtaining a patent after rebutting the reasons for refusal?
Let P be the rate at which a patent is granted after being notified of the reasons for refusal and making a counterargument.
The rate at which a patent is granted without being notified of the reasons for refusal is ①.
The rate of obtaining a patent after being ``notified'' and refuting the reasons for refusal is ④×P.
Then, the rate of eventual patenting (60% of ⑤)
= Rate of patent being granted without notification of reasons for refusal (15% of ①)
+ Rate of patent being granted after notification of reasons for refusal ((85% of ④ x 85%) x P)
It becomes.
0.6=0.15+0.85×0.85×P
P=0.6228...
The rate of obtaining a patent after rebutting the reasons for refusal is approximately 62.3%.
●It is also interesting to look at patents from the perspective of probability and statistics.
The above numbers are subject to several assumptions and conditions.
These are just numbers on paper.
It may not necessarily apply to your specific case.
For your reference only.
By the way, there are some patent offices (patent attorneys) with a 100% patent rate.
(For example, a patent firm with a relatively short history.)
Naturally, the rate of obtaining a patent after rebutting the reasons for refusal is 100%.
It is also interesting to look at patents from the perspective of probability and statistics.
These numbers may be digitized somewhere.
Aside from that, I would like to think about various things in the future.
